EURUSD Weekly chart for 3-7 august 2009

EURUSD Daily chart for 3-7 august 2009

EURUSD H4 chart for 3-7 august 2009

EURUSD H1 chart for 3-7 august 2009

From the Weekly chart, we see a nice bearish Gartley pattern. As long as 1.4362 holds, I’m keeping a bearish bias and the bearish Gartley pattern stands.

From a daily perspective, I will be waiting for the price to trade below the 50 day moving average, which it has been respecting as a support level since 29th april 2009. A break below this EMA (below 1.4000) would confirm my bearish view.

From an H4 perspective, price looks overbought and a break below 1.4185 ( 50% Monthly Fib) would have me taking shorts with tight stops.

The H1 chart looks good for shorts, all the way down to 1.4085, which looks like a good level for a 45 pip long scalp.

Overall, the market sentiment, from a technical point of view, looks bearish next week.

EURUSD

EURUSD Monthly chart

EURUSD Weekly chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD Daily chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD H4 chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD H1 chart, 23 july 2009

On the monthly chart, the EURO is just above a monthly 23.6% Fibonacci level. A close above 1.42 at the end of the month might keep the EURO rising higher, towards 1.47. The Weekly chart displays a trendline resistance and a supply area at 1.4330 – 1.4360. A break above that would be a confirmation that the uptrend will continue towards 1.47, but I personally favour a fade back down.

On the medium term, we have a daily TL (trendline) resistance in confluence with 1.4331 resistance level, which should provide a nice fade when it gets there. A break under 1.4155 (23.6% daily Fib level) would be a confirmation that the pair will trade lower towards 1.3800 (the bottom of a big daily range).

The 4 hour chart looks quite choppy, showing that bulls are losing strength and there is a lot of indecision in the market. A break below 1.4200 H4 23.6% Fib level and TL support will give confirmation that the bears are in control.

In the 1 hour chart, we’re still trending up, but we’re now inside a nice ranging channel. Price could not stay above the range and it continues to get sucked in, giving signals of reversal. A break below 1.4180 could be a good signal to short the market. 1.4145 is also a critical level though and that will be our final confirmation that the market is reversing and I would go short with tight stops until 1.4145 gets broken.

Overall, I am bearish on EURUSD in the following days and the following week, considering the pair is highly overbought and has made significant rallies. A correction is certainly due. As a trader, though, you need to be prepared for any possibility, so with a break above 1.4250 and if the price starts using it as support, I would go long.

GBPUSD Weekly Elliot Wave analysis

GBPUSD is currently in a wave 3 or wave 5 of a long-term corrective wave C. We probably are at the begining of a wave 5 of that C corrective wave. So, for next week, I am projecting a bullish run up to 1.68 (161.8 fib extension of the last correction) and then the continuation of the big bearish trend, that will eventually take us below 1.35. If we’re in a wave 3 of C (though not likely), we may get a bigger bullish rally before we go down again (maybe up to 1.7320).

Taking into account that EURUSD has a strong correlation with both GBPUSD and EURJPY, we should expect the same iminent bearish continuation for both. But, as I said, next week we will probably witness a final bull rally, so I’m bullish on these pairs next week. If this is the case, then EURUSD may have a top near 1.4719 high of December 18th, 2008. So I expect a break of 1.4330 to the upside on the EURO and a break of 1.666 on the GBP. A possible top on EURJPY would most probably be 145.46 and I’d expect a break of the 139.21 high.

These highs could be taken out tuesday or wednesday, as we have a lot of important news coming out. So watch out for this and good luck!

EURUSD support and resistance lines. Click on the image to zoom in

My EURUSD H4 chart for 18th January 2009

Or click here to see the “mind-map” online.

Cheers!

EURUSD

EURUSD Elliot Wave

EURUSD seems to be displaying a perfect Elliot Wave pattern on the H4 chart. If this outlook is correct, then next week we should see a retest of the 1.3080 – 1.3000 area, followed by a big bullish run till 1.3800 – 1.3830 area. A breach below 1.3000 would invalidate this view and I will look to sell at a retest of wave 5’s low. If, instead, price will bounce off 1.3080 – 1.3000 and break 3’s low at 1.3333, I will look to buy at retests of former resistance lines that become support and finally I will sell short at 1.38 for some nice profit. This is my plan for the EURO.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD weekly outlook

This pair looks more bearish biased and the 1.4470 88.6% fib level is a key level. I will probably look to buy it if momentum is not strong near it, but I will do that cautiously, moving my stop to breakeven at +20 and taking partial profits at +30 pips. If that level gets broken, I will look to go short at a retest for a possible profit of 100 pips or maybe more. A break of 1.4470 would probably mean a break of 1.3 on the EURO, as these two pairs tend to be correlated, so I will watch this pair carefully. Another key turning point is 1.5 and I will look to sell on the first touch if momentum is not strong and then look for a breakout of this level, that would confirm my Elliot Wave for EURUSD also. So if 1.5 gets broken, I will also look to buy at that level once it becomes support.

USDCAD

USDCAD weekly outlook

USDCAD has a very strong resistance at 1.3000 and a break of that would mean a big bearish move on EURUSD and GBPUSD. A lot of time has passed though between bounces off that resistance, so when price gets there I will look to go short for a nice profit. USDCAD seems to be range-bound, floating in the 1.15 – 1.3 area and a descending wedge formation seems to have formed on the H4 chart. That will definitely be something to watch out for and look for a break of those trendlines. A break to the downside would be bullish for the EURUSD/GBPUSD pairs and a break to the upside would mean bearish continuation for those pairs.

EURJPY

EURJPY weekly outlook

I am looking for a short at 122 – 122.35 area, but cautiously. That’s a nice resistance line at confluence with a 50% fib, so it looks like a strong one. A break above it would signal EURO bullishness and I would look to buy at a retest of 122-122.35 resistance become support. Target would be over 100 pips.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY weekly outlook

I made a nice 50 pips on this one thursday and anticipated some nice moves I wasn’t able to play because of exams. Next week, it’s possible to see a break of 132 on the downside, so I would look for a short on a retest. I would probably also buy at 129 for a fast scalp, then sell short at the retest of 129 after it becomes resistance. For the upside, 137-137.5 area is a key resistance, at confluence with a 38.2% fib trendline drawn from a daily chart and we also have a 61.8% fib resistance line just below, so I would first look to go short there if it goes up. Then if it lurks back up to it, I will wait patiently for a breakout and then buy at a retest of resistance become support.

This is my trade plan for next week and these are the major moves I’m ready to face. Good luck to you all!