EURUSD

EURUSD Monthly chart

EURUSD Weekly chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD Daily chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD H4 chart, 23 july 2009

EURUSD H1 chart, 23 july 2009

On the monthly chart, the EURO is just above a monthly 23.6% Fibonacci level. A close above 1.42 at the end of the month might keep the EURO rising higher, towards 1.47. The Weekly chart displays a trendline resistance and a supply area at 1.4330 – 1.4360. A break above that would be a confirmation that the uptrend will continue towards 1.47, but I personally favour a fade back down.

On the medium term, we have a daily TL (trendline) resistance in confluence with 1.4331 resistance level, which should provide a nice fade when it gets there. A break under 1.4155 (23.6% daily Fib level) would be a confirmation that the pair will trade lower towards 1.3800 (the bottom of a big daily range).

The 4 hour chart looks quite choppy, showing that bulls are losing strength and there is a lot of indecision in the market. A break below 1.4200 H4 23.6% Fib level and TL support will give confirmation that the bears are in control.

In the 1 hour chart, we’re still trending up, but we’re now inside a nice ranging channel. Price could not stay above the range and it continues to get sucked in, giving signals of reversal. A break below 1.4180 could be a good signal to short the market. 1.4145 is also a critical level though and that will be our final confirmation that the market is reversing and I would go short with tight stops until 1.4145 gets broken.

Overall, I am bearish on EURUSD in the following days and the following week, considering the pair is highly overbought and has made significant rallies. A correction is certainly due. As a trader, though, you need to be prepared for any possibility, so with a break above 1.4250 and if the price starts using it as support, I would go long.

I had an exam today, but I got home earlier and put on the first trade at 10:45 GMT. Last one was at 15:19 GMT, when I decided to take the day off. So that’s almost 5 hours of trading, in which I earned 120 pips. I still have problems with letting profits run, though. I could have easily taken between 200 and 300 pips in total, but I closed early on most trades. Anyway, that’s still an awsome score. Imagine taking 100 pips per day each day. That’s 2000 pips in a month.

Well, this was a very good day and I’m looking forward for tomorrow. Hope you had a good trading day.

Cheers!

GBPUSD support and resistance lines. Click on the image to zoom in

My GBPUSD H4 chart for 18th January 2009

Or click here to see the “mind-map” online.

Cheers!

Strong long-term levels (monthly & weekly charts)

Supports:

- 1.000 (also a psychological level);

- 1.0610 (identical with 123.6% monthly fib – strong level);

- 1.1640 (big bump in uptrend, has a couple of historical bounces);

- 1.2329 (strong support, blocked a huge bearish move, has a lot of historical significance);

Resistance levels:

- 1.3825-1.3850 area (couple of monthly bounces and confluence with 50% monthly fib retracement);

- 1.4360 (couple of monthly bounces and confluence with 38.2% monthly fib; look at it from the weekly chart and you’ll see how it acted both as support and resistance – strong one);

- 1.5000 (psychological level and 23.6% monthly fib);

- 1.6035 (all time high, double top on monthly chart, all time highs and all time lows are important psych levels).

Intra-day levels (daily, H4 and H1 charts)

Supports:

- 1.3070-1.3080 area (daily range top – bucket support line – strong level);

- 1.3300 – 1.3315 area (confluence with 61.8% monthly fib, acted as both support and resistance on the daily chart – strong one);

Resistance levels:

- 1.3535 (acted as support and resistance on the H4 and H1- very strong intra-day level);

- 1.3630 (acted as support on the H4 – good one);

- 1.4200 (H4 support and resistance line – decent one);

- 1.4719 (last swing high);

I will be watching these lines next week, as they are possible key market turning points.

Cheers!

Happy holidays and a Happy Rich New Year!

I won’t be trading until the end of 2008, so I’ll be taking a “post-break”

Hope you all had a good year and look forward for a successful trading year.

Cheers!